NBA Over/Unders - West
On to the West - an absolute bloodbath. There are realistically 14 teams in the West that could legitimately contend for a playoff spot in the East. Maybe watching Andre Drummond get 10 and 10 in the playoffs this year instead of Anthony Davis dropping 50 and 25 will be enough for the league to consider ditching conferences.
Clippers (35.5): There aren’t many NBA teams that would have a shot at contention after losing their 3 best players in a 13 month span - the Clippers are poised to do just that. While I’m not sure that this will end up being the right play long term, they’ve got a pretty solid group of veterans along with SGA and some young talent. Combine that with the fact that Doc is steering the ship and a playoff birth doesn’t seem out of the question. I like the over.
Grizzlies (34.5): If Conley and Gasol stay healthy, it’s hard to imagine this team not winning 35 games. That’s a huge if – it feels like it’s been ages since I’ve seen Mike Conley on a basketball court, but I think their offseason acquisitions have them poised to be in the 8-10 seed range and winning about 40 games.
Jazz (48.5): There are so many parallels between the seasons that the Pacers and Jazz had last year. 49 wins in the West is a huge task, but I’m actually counting on Utah to get it done. I would be surprised if they finished worse than the 4 seed. If Gobert and Mitchell can stay healthy, this team could be terrifying.
Kings (25.5): This is the pick I’m most confident in in the entire league. The Kings are not going to win 26 games. I’m not sure if they’ll win a single game against the rest of the West. The teams that missed the playoffs in the West all got better – I think the Kings will be entertaining at times, but definitely won’t be winning many games.
Lakers (48.5): I don’t think anyone can say with any type of certainty that they know how this season will go for the Lakers. While it would be very unlike LeBron to punt on a season, it still feels like that’s what’s happening here. In a year all about developing the young talent, I don’t think the Lakers are able to win 14 more than last year – I lean towards the under.
Mavs (34.5): The starting lineup that the Mavs can throw out (assuming Doncic plays well) is pretty solid. In the East, it seems like they’d be a playoff contender. In the West, they’re going to be a doormat. I think they’re significantly worse than some of the teams like Memphis that are going to be in the 8-10 range, and I think the Mavs fall victim to circumstance and end up with around 30 wins.
Nuggets (47.5): I can’t wait for this Nuggets team to break through. Jokic is one of my favorite players in the league, Gary Harris is the pride of my old stomping ground (suburban Indianapolis), and Jamal Murray has the potential to be the second-best light-skinned, 3-point-focused point guard in the league. They won 46 last year, and the combination of those two things should be worth at least 2 games – over.
Pelicans (45.5): Someone has to drop out of the Western conference playoffs to make room for the Lakers (and probably the Nuggets), and the Pelicans are my choice. Last year’s stretch run feels a bit fluky. I’m expecting the Randle/Davis combo to bully people, but Rondo was a big part of last year’s team, and I think they’ll miss his production.
Rockets (54.5): The hip thing to do right now is to hate on Melo and the Rockets and dismiss their offseason. I’m not ready to do so. I believe they’ll be at least the 2 seed again this year and will torch through the league once again during the regular season. Give me the over.
Spurs (43.5): Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. They’re going to cruise to the most boring 50 wins in league history.
Suns (28.5): I think this team is going to be a lot better than last year, I’m just not sure their record will reflect it. The lack of point-guard play is going to be a huge problem. Ayton is going to get a lot of minutes, but I don’t expect him to make many plays that makes the team better yet. Too many good teams in the West – I expect the under.
Thunder (50.5): There’s a sneaking suspicion inside me that OKC is going to be the 2 seed and contend in the way that they were expected to last year. As much as I want to predict it, I think they’ll be fighting with the Jazz for the 4 seed instead. 48 or 49 wins.
Timberwolves (44.5): My other playoff team from last year that I suspect will drop out. Something stinks about this team right now. They clearly don’t like each other, and I’m not confident Jimmy Butler will be on the team by the end of the season. Under.
TrailBlazers (41.5): This team won 49 games last year. Assuming that they’re going to get 8 games worse with the same roster seems like a stretch. Despite the fact that I think their ceiling is low, I think this team is good for 44+ wins.
Warriors (62.5): The 1 seed in the West has averaged 66 wins over the last 4 years. Last year’s team really checked out in the regular season, I feel that this team will have a chip on its shoulders and cruise to 65.