NBA Over/Unders - East
Taking a very different tone than yesterday’s post, I’m going to spend the next two days breaking down the NBA Over/Unders that came out this week. I was considering breaking them down by animal/non-animal teams but decided to split it up by East/West. What’s best about this is that I have administrative power on this site and will be able to go back and change all of my posts in December when my predictions are proving to be wildly inaccurate. Let’s begin with the East.
76ers (54.5): No thank you. Smash the under. I’m so high on Embiid and Simmons, but they overachieved last year. Without that 20-game win streak to close the season, it feels like this number would be a lot lower. Losing Ilysova and Bellinelli is going to sting – they were huge parts of their offense. I think there’s a chance that Fultz has a great year and come playoff time this team looks dangerous again, but I don’t think a 46-win season and the 4 or 5 seed is out of the question.
Bucks (46.5): I lean towards the over here. There’s a scenario that I’ve talked myself into where the Bucks end up snagging the 2 or 3 seed behind an MVP campaign from Giannis and win 50+ games. This will be the first time in Giannis’s career that he has a real coach, and Budenholzer is amazing in the regular season. With Middleton, Ilyasova, and Lopez spacing the floor, I think this could be a much better Bucks team.
Bulls (27.5): This could go terribly, but I think this new iteration of the Bulls could flirt with a playoff appearance. Ultimately, I don’t think they make it, but 35 wins doesn’t seem unfathomable if they can get any type of bench production – I’ll take the over.
Cavs (30.5): Potentially a really ugly and sad team by the end of the year, but also potentially a playoff team. This team couldn’t guard anyone last year and I’m not sure what they’ve done to really improve that, but Love and some vets is more appealing to me than a lot of other Eastern teams. I like the over.
Celtics (57.5): That’s a really high number, especially for a team that seems to be constantly ridden with injuries. However, I think they get to it. The average number of wins for the Eastern Conference 1 seed over the last 4 years is 57.25 – this team (if healthy) is stronger and deeper than almost all of those teams, so I think 59-60 and the 1 seed is pretty likely.
Hawks (23.5): I’m surprised by this total. The Hawks won 24 games last year with a worse roster. They’re still going to suck, but surely they hit the over here.
Heat (41.5): My goodness I hate this roster. There’s so much money tied up in guys with low ceilings but high floors. There’s no real reason to expect them to be worse than last year, but something about it feels stale. The teams around them got better, so I lean towards the under.
Hornets (35.5): There are a lot of whispers of a Hornets playoff run and I just don’t see it. This is another terrible roster without much hope. They let go of a good coach and I’m not sure it will pay off. I’m expecting the wheels to fall off midseason and they’ll trade Kemba and bottom out. Give me the under.
Knicks (29.5): One of the harder teams to predict given how little we know about Porzingis’s health. There seems to be a sense of desire around New York to prove relevancy prior to a big summer of free agency – that combined with Kevin Knox and Franky Nicotine’s stout defense leads me to think they get to the low to mid 30s.
Magic (31.5): What a mess. Rebuilding since Dwight left and still only expected to win 31.5 games. I’d bet on the under. The bad teams in the East aren’t as bad as they have been in previous years and I could see Orlando punting on some of their vets (Fournier, Vucevic) to get minutes for the young guys. There’s a chance this ends up being the worst team in the East.
Nets (32.5): This is beginning to feel like a competent organization, but there’s still not a great roster to put out on the floor. It’s never great when your best player (Dinwiddie) is the 20th best player at his position. I’m expecting a year similar to last year with around 30 wins.
Pacers (47.5): As a fan, this is probably the toughest one for me to fairly analyze. I love the Pacers’ offseason and am so encouraged by the future. But, I think they may have overachieved a bit last year. They were exceptional in close games, and a couple bad breaks may result in 3-4 fewer wins. I’d take the under and hope that I’m wrong.
Pistons (37.5): Assuming some semblance of health, I’d be shocked if this wasn’t the 8 or 9 seed in the East. Dwayne Casey will get this team on track.
Raptors (54.5): 53 or 54 feels like the number to me. They lost a great coach and a lot of continuity. Their bench mob lost one of its key pieces in Poetl. I’m expecting a slower start as Kyle Lowry pouts, and then Kawhi leads this team to being really dangerous in the back half of the season and playoffs.
Wizards (44.5): Another middle of the road team that’s really tough to predict. I’m expecting them to fall in at 43 or 44. I just don’t believe in this roster or the combination of Beal and Wall from a performance or health standpoint. Dwight being in the locker room could really accelerate their feud, and I could see a trade happening to get rid of one of the two guards (probably Beal because no one wants Wall’s contract).